http://www.pariveda.com daily 1 2005-11-05T09:21:19Z http://www.pariveda.com/parivedaBLOG/economy/marketreview/mktviews-080701 After three quarters of grinding lower, it’s not clear the ultimate loss of wealth at the bottom of this market cycle will be the most painful aspect for investors. Instead it could very well be the time it takes to get there. No publisher bmurphy 2008-07-13T17:55+00:00 http://www.pariveda.com/parivedaBLOG/sectors/opportunities-080701 Opportunities are developing in the preferred stock and fixed income arenas as credit conditions continue to deteriorate. Municipal bonds look extremely timely from a strategic perspective, especially for investors nearing retirement in higher-tax states such as California. No publisher bmurphy 2008-07-12T17:55+00:00 http://www.pariveda.com/parivedaBLOG/economy/economy/analysts080415 No publisher bmurphy 2008-04-14T17:55+00:00 http://www.pariveda.com/parivedaBLOG/sectors/todaysopps-080401 Most of our selected funds continue to turn in solid relative performance in a down market, and that’s great. With our current downturn showing a bounce early in Q2, now is a good time to review your portfolio. This quarter we’re taking five funds off our selected list and recommending selling four of them. We’d recommend looking at the following sectors for inclusion in portfolios at this time: bear market funds (small positions only), Africa/Middle East (low correlation w/ U.S.), Mortgage & Municipal Bonds. No publisher bmurphy 2008-04-13T17:55+00:00 http://www.pariveda.com/parivedaBLOG/sectors/todaysopps-080101 We’re quite pleased with the recent performance of most of the funds on our opportunities list for retail investors. For the most part, they far exceeded the U.S. stock market’s 5.14% increase in 2007 and continue to be adding value relative to their respective benchmarks. No publisher bmurphy 2008-01-12T17:55+00:00 http://www.pariveda.com/parivedaBLOG/economy/sp500fairvalue/sapvalue-080101 Due to the data series we have access to, our valuation model simply doesn't perform in market's led by cyclical value stocks. But that doesn't mean we can't gain important insights. No publisher bmurphy 2008-01-12T00:00+00:00 http://www.pariveda.com/parivedaBLOG/sectors/todaysopps-070930 Investors continued to rotate towards large cap growth funds and away from small/mid-cap value in Q3. These macro trends typically tend to last for a year or more, so by our analysis we’re still early in the growth stock cycle with plenty of opportunity for readers to benefit. No publisher bmurphy 2007-10-07T00:10+00:00 http://www.pariveda.com/parivedaBLOG/economy/sp500fairvalue/sap500value-071001 Corporate earnings of the stocks that make up the S&P 500 continue to grow at rates above that of their respective stock prices, further boosting “fair value” for the S&P 500 index over the intermediate term, based on our quantitative valuation model. In fact, at present fair value remains more than 50% higher than the index’s current price of 1526 No publisher bmurphy 2007-10-07T00:05+00:00 http://www.pariveda.com/parivedaBLOG/sectors/todaysopps-070701 Our opportunity list, shown below, is comprised solely of actively managed mutual funds that should be available through the Fidelity, Charles Schwab and TD Ameritrade fund platforms as “no-transaction fee” options. With investors now more aggressively seeking out opportunities in the growth sectors of the market, we’ve added a few funds that you may find attractive. No publisher bmurphy 2007-07-10T00:00+00:00 http://www.pariveda.com/parivedaBLOG/economy/sp500fairvalue/sap-valuation070630 With S&P 500 earnings continuing to grow at double-digit rates, though at a slowing pace, our valuation model continues to point to considerably more upside in the market at the start of Q3-2007. No publisher bmurphy 2007-07-09T00:05+00:00 http://www.pariveda.com/parivedaBLOG/taxes/mgmtfees-070401 In most cases, investment management fees paid to advisors are deductible on the payer's annual tax returns. A quick overview of what qualifies, and what doesn't. No publisher bmurphy 2007-04-11T17:55+00:00 http://www.pariveda.com/parivedaBLOG/sectors/todaysopps-070401 With the economy slowing and sector leadership waning, investor interests may be best served by considering funds, and management teams, that have shown a knack for good, old-fashioned stock-picking. Here’s an updated list of what we find attractive at present and a few thoughts as to why these funds might make sense in your portfolio. No publisher bmurphy 2007-04-10T02:55+00:00 http://www.pariveda.com/parivedaBLOG/economy/sp500fairvalue/sp500valuation-070401 Nothing new to report on the stock valuation front – as S&P earnings continue to expand at a robust clip, our valuation model remains pegged to a very under-valued reading. According to our work, fair value resides some 60% higher. No publisher bmurphy 2007-04-10T01:55+00:00 http://www.pariveda.com/parivedaBLOG/taxes/reinvested-distr Investor's holding mutual funds with re-invested distributions in taxable accounts are often confused in calculating gains and losses at tax time. This entry should help you ensure you're not overpaying the tax man. No publisher bmurphy 2007-01-24T21:54+00:00 http://www.pariveda.com/parivedaBLOG/products/hsa/HSAs Rising health care costs are taking a toll on Americans. A recent study indicated health care premiums for Californians rose more than 81% between 2000 and 2006. While managing health care costs is becoming a priority for our law makers, the debate for national health care continues. However, there is a government program already in place that can help individuals reduce their health care costs. This is the Health Savings Act (HSA) which was signed into law in 2003 as part of the Medicare Act. No publisher bmurphy 2006-12-05T22:33+00:00 http://www.pariveda.com/parivedaBLOG/products/hsa/hsa-economics From our cursory overview of Health Savings Accounts signed into law by President Bush in late 2003 as part of the Medicare bill they seem to have outstanding potential to help families and individuals both lower current health care costs and sock away tax-free funds for future qualified medical expenses. Let’s dig a little deeper and quantify the economic benefits to participants by walking through a real-life comparison. No publisher bmurphy 2006-12-05T09:00+00:00 http://www.pariveda.com/parivedaBLOG/products/hsa/hsa-overview We survey the landscape of the budding Health Savings Plan account options available through a number of financial institutions. With over 1,100 banks, credit unions and brokerages offering plans, our survey isn’t exhaustive but our finding do point out the varying range of services and fees charged by HSA providers at large. No publisher bmurphy 2006-12-04T00:00+00:00 http://www.pariveda.com/parivedaBLOG/strategies/million-dollar-edu Had someone warned me that my 2-year business school education would ultimately cost me more than a million dollars, I might have thought twice about enrolling at Wharton. But, as my corporate finance professor, the late Isik Inselbag, was fond of reminding us, “a sunk cost is sunk.” And so, instead of regretting the possibility of early retirement, I’ll continue to reflect on my initial forays into investing as an instrumental part of my secondary education. Expensive yes, but probably worth every penny. No publisher bmurphy 2006-11-22T12:57+00:00 http://www.pariveda.com/parivedaBLOG/strategies/fedcycles-061019 No publisher bmurphy 2006-10-19T16:06+00:00 http://www.pariveda.com/parivedaBLOG/economy/marketreview/mktreview-061001 It’s no wonder many investors have been lagging the indices badly in this market – as others have noted, the move has been extremely concentrated favoring the largest large-caps over pretty much everything else. So, what's behind the big move and does it make sense to join the party? No publisher bmurphy 2006-10-14T21:46+00:00 http://www.pariveda.com/parivedaBLOG/economy/sp500fairvalue/sp500valuation-061001 Our quantitative valuation continues to rate the S&P 500 a buy based on trailing operating earnings. Our fair value estimate moves up to 2100 this quarter. No publisher bmurphy 2006-10-12T17:55+00:00 http://www.pariveda.com/parivedaBLOG/research/frontline-060715 Frontline recently aired a program on the financial issues surrounding retirement in America. It's a good show, well researched and presented. We think it's a must-view for anyone who will be responsible for ensuring their own well-being in retirement. No publisher bmurphy 2006-07-17T11:20+00:00 http://www.pariveda.com/parivedaBLOG/economy/marketreview/mktreview-060701 Tough quarter all around, and it looks like volatility in the markets is set to pick up precipitously from here. The end of ZIRP and the beginning inflation targeting. No publisher bmurphy 2006-07-16T15:55+00:00 http://www.pariveda.com/parivedaBLOG/economy/sp500fairvalue/sp500valuation-060701 Our quantitative model that uses historic results over the past 17 years to signal the relative attractiveness of the broad U.S. market remains solidly in “buy territory”, yet it has clearly broken down. We examine the reasons for this and make provide some thoughts. No publisher bmurphy 2006-07-01T17:55+00:00 http://www.pariveda.com/parivedaBLOG/sectors/todaysopps-060701 Waning investor enthusiasm merits a re-assessment of the risks one is willing to take in their portfolios. While we continue to like the sectors, we’d recommend investors consider scaling back exposure to emerging markets, international small caps and dedicated natural resource funds to an aggregate 15% or less in total portfolio weight. No publisher bmurphy 2006-07-01T00:55+00:00 http://www.pariveda.com/parivedaBLOG/sectors/opportunities-060401 We’re making only modest changes to our sector and fund recommendations this quarter. A few shifts in sector outlooks brought about by relative performance and fund changes precipitated primarily by recent fund closings. No publisher bmurphy 2006-04-25T17:55+00:00 http://www.pariveda.com/parivedaBLOG/economy/marketreview/mktreview-060401 After remaining range-bound in 2005, the U.S. stock market broke tentatively to the upside in Q1, 2006. To us, this constrained “two-steps forward, one step back” action is encouraging as it points to a high degree of skepticism amongst market participants and solid “base-building” from a technical perspective. No publisher bmurphy 2006-04-07T00:55+00:00 http://www.pariveda.com/parivedaBLOG/economy/sp500fairvalue/sapvalue-060401 Not much has changed since last quarter. Our quantitative valuation model for the S&P 500 index remains pegged deeply in buy territory. Based on data from the last 17 years, which arguably overstates the valuation gap from a long-term perspective, the market is better than 50% undervalued at present. While the magnitude may be of question, we continue to view valuations as constructive to further market advances. No publisher bmurphy 2006-04-07T00:45+00:00 http://www.pariveda.com/parivedaBLOG/products/iras/iras060401 Contributions to an individual’s 2005 IRAs can be made until April 17th, 2006, but if you haven’t done so yet, or are considering your options for 2006, which should you choose – a Roth, or a Traditional, IRA? In this entry we outline the features of each plan and analyze subtle distinctions between the two that lead us to the opinion that the Roth IRA is likely to prove the better option for a majority of today’s retirement savers. No publisher bmurphy 2006-04-04T00:00+00:00 http://www.pariveda.com/parivedaBLOG/products/mutualfunds/freedom060301 Fidelity recently announced several changes to their Freedom fund lineup that will alter their respective profiles and likely have an impact on each of the fund’s returns going forward. In general, we find them to be welcome enhancements, though we’re still not fans of the funds themselves. No publisher bmurphy 2006-03-04T15:49+00:00 http://www.pariveda.com/parivedaBLOG/sectors/todaysopps-060101 Our apologies for failing to update this section with the end of the year update. Happily, there are only a few changes to report at the time of this writing (March 3, 2006). We’ll be updating more extensively at the end of this quarter. No publisher bmurphy 2006-03-03T17:55+00:00 http://www.pariveda.com/parivedaBLOG/products/hedgefunds/hedgefunds As Forbes points out 2005 hedge fund returns were'nt anything to write home about, again. No publisher bmurphy 2006-01-18T01:12+00:00 http://www.pariveda.com/parivedaBLOG/economy/marketreview/mktreview-060108 Boring, dull, lackluster…whatever adjective one wishes to use, the U.S. markets just didn’t show much sizzle on the whole in 2005. Instead they reminded us more of a 40-year old marathoner at mile-market twenty…struggling with every step, yet remaining determined to put in a respectable showing. No publisher bmurphy 2006-01-09T15:00+00:00 http://www.pariveda.com/parivedaBLOG/economy/economy/invertedcuve060101 Inverted yield curves have an uncanny knack of preceding recessions, but in our opinion it's unlikely this time. Still even a sustainable partial inversion is likely to effect the markets dramatically in 2006. What's up with the 10-year bond anyways? No publisher bmurphy 2006-01-02T01:37+00:00 http://www.pariveda.com/parivedaBLOG/economy/sp500fairvalue/sp-fairvalue060101 As it has for the past three years, the S&P 500 index remains cheap based on our quantitative models. Its discount to fair value is wider this quarter than it has been at any time during the past 16 years. No publisher bmurphy 2006-01-01T00:05+00:00 http://www.pariveda.com/parivedaBLOG/products/401kplans/retirement051230 A recent survey by Hewitt Associates shows that, on the whole, employers don't see enabling employee retirement as a top priority. No publisher bmurphy 2005-12-29T00:00+00:00 http://www.pariveda.com/parivedaBLOG/products/SMAs/SMAs-051221 Separately Managed Accounts (SMAs) have been one of the investment industry’s fastest growing “products” over the last decade - ramping from $75 billion in 1994 to $650 billion today. Great, but do they make sense for your investment situation? No publisher bmurphy 2005-12-21T20:09+00:00 http://www.pariveda.com/parivedaBLOG/economy/Housing/housing-bubble051105 We spent a little time ferreting out public national, state, and select county data of relevance to the housing market…basic stuff that we haven’t found put together in a comprehensive and intelligent way elsewhere. Additionally we add some possibilities for outcomes prospective investors should consider before placing a down payment. No publisher bmurphy 2005-11-05T23:14+00:00 http://www.pariveda.com/parivedaBLOG/economy/marketreview/mktreview-051001 While the broad market advanced modestly during the third quarter, investor sentiment remained positively disposed towards taking market risk, leading to a favorable climate for active portfolio managers. Small and mid-cap U.S. stocks as well as international & emerging markets equities all out-performed the broad U.S. market. No publisher bmurphy 2005-10-01T00:55+00:00 http://www.pariveda.com/parivedaBLOG/economy/sp500fairvalue/sp500valuation-051001 Our quantitative model that provides a fair value estimate of the S&P 500 index continues to signal the broad market as being significantly under-valued. Moreover, the divergence between our model’s fair value estimate and reality has increased notably over the past year. This suggests that the stock market is now cheaper, relative to fundamentals, than it’s been at any time over the past 16 years. No publisher bmurphy 2005-10-01T00:45+00:00 http://www.pariveda.com/parivedaBLOG/sectors/opportunities-051001 Times change and we’re here to stay on top of the latest trends in the financial markets. This quarter we’re downgrading three U.S. market sectors and upgrading two. We’re also making quite a few changes to our recommended funds, both additions and deletions, so have at it! No publisher bmurphy 2005-10-01T00:30+00:00 http://www.pariveda.com/parivedaBLOG/economy/savings/persavings-051001 At what point the personal savings problem in the U.S. becomes a tragedy, I’m not sure, but I’d hazard a guess it’s in the foreseeable future. No publisher bmurphy 2005-10-01T00:15+00:00 http://www.pariveda.com/parivedaBLOG/products/mutualfunds/Lifecycle The popularity of Lifecycle funds, both Lifestyle and Target Retirement, has been accelerating over the past few years both amongst employer 401(k) plans and within participant accounts. In fact, if you start a new job without deciding on whether to enroll in your new company's defined contribution retirement plan, odds are pretty good that you'll end up enrolled and the proud owner of one! How do they stack up as investments? No publisher admin 2005-07-18T17:54+00:00 http://www.pariveda.com/parivedaBLOG/strategies/retire-041231 No publisher admin 2005-07-18T17:54+00:00 http://www.pariveda.com/parivedaBLOG/strategies/principles-021231 Financial markets are mysterious creatures. Driven by fear and greed they are almost impossible to predict over the short-term. However, by maintaining discipline investors can succeed in this market...the trouble is the conventional wisdom of the 1990's in many cases no longer applies. With the start of the New Year, we thought it would be beneficial to jot down our thoughts on what works and doesn't work today and probably for the next 5 to 10 years. No publisher admin 2005-07-18T17:54+00:00 http://www.pariveda.com/parivedaBLOG/sectors/todaysops050701 Adding a few funds, taking a few away. No publisher admin 2005-07-18T17:54+00:00 http://www.pariveda.com/parivedaBLOG/sectors/reits The Real Estate Investment Trust (REIT) sector has been on fire over the past 5 1/2 years returning better than 175% cumulatively since the beginning of 2000 versus negative 7% for the broad U.S. stock market. No publisher admin 2005-07-18T17:54+00:00 http://www.pariveda.com/parivedaBLOG/economy/marketreview/mktrecap-050701 Another boring quarter completed and in the books. The U.S. stock market remains at sea, drifting aimlessly between 1150 and 1200 for the S&P 500 as it has since last November. No publisher admin 2005-07-01T00:20+00:00 http://www.pariveda.com/parivedaBLOG/economy/savings/consumerspending-050701 How is borrowing against homeowner equity affecting the economy? No publisher admin 2005-07-01T00:05+00:00